Friday, January 3, 2014

How Cooked is Our Goose?

So I've been reading a lot of new dire predictions about climate change on the interwebs. One article sited a study published in Nature and said that a new understanding of how clouds form as the temperature rises predicts that the earth will experience catastrophic climate change (4 degrees C) by 2100. The other focused on loss of sea ice and said that the world might be unlivable as soon as 2050.

I'm not entirely sure what to make of these predictions. I mean, I pretty much think that catastrophic climate change is inevitable given the unwillingness of our collective world governments to tackle the problem in any meaningful way, but... earth unlivable by 2050?!? That's soon enough that I might have a ringside seat. Hmmm.... it sorta makes one stop to think.



But.... rather than waste our breath arguing over whether that's a real possibility or not, let's just say for a moment that the worst prediction is true. Runaway climate change is upon us and within the next 36 years human beings will become an endangered species. The debate is over, even the Koch brothers say it's so.

My question is this: What do you do now?

When I say that, I don't mean it rhetorically, and I don't mean "you" as some expression of collective humanity. What I mean is, if you somehow knew definitively that the worst prediction was on its way to happening, what you personally do?

Would you sell everything you own and move as far north as possible?
One of the articles I read implied that the change will cause a massive die off of plankton, which would cause earth's oxygen levels to plummet. In that case, I don't think latitude would do you much good.

Would you construct a bio-dome, lock yourself in and try to create a sustainable mini-habitat?
It's an interesting idea, but unless you've got a pretty good fence around that thing, it's hard to imagine it and its inhabitants surviving intact when the post-apocalyptic hungry droves start to descend.



Would you make large donations to geo-engineering research?
I've always thought that the whole "science will save us" approach was bargaining with the devil, but if things really were that dire, perhaps it would be worth giving it a shot?

Would you have kids?
This is an interesting question. If you knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that a person born today would have a slim chance of making it to age 40, and would do a heckuva lot of suffering to get that far, would you bring them into the world? Sorta makes me glad that I don't have any progeny to worry about.

Or would you just ignore it?
You could just say, "Oh screw it, marijuana is legal in Colorado now, let's go smoke a doobie and forget about it!" Hmmm.... tempting.... Seriously though, there is an argument to be made that if the world is gonna end and there's nothing you can do about it, you may as well enjoy your life now while you can.



I do have a very hard time believing that a system as big as our climate could change on a dime like that. But hey, I studied music and psychology in school, so what do I know? And you have to admit, it is a very interesting question.

For the moment, I made one tiny change and signed up for Denver's municipal compost program. Part of me thinks this is a ridiculous waste of money (it costs about $120/year) since I compost most household organic waste myself. But there are some things like sticks etc that are just too hard to compost without a commercial setup, and maybe my neighbors would like to use the bin as well.

I know it's spitting in the ocean, but it did make me feel a tiny bit better.



So tell me... what would you do?

32 comments :

  1. Interesting question! I do as much as I can by turning off lights, walking or taking public transport, buying as little as possible etc, but it really is a drop in the ocean.

    It's particularly frustrating this year because our newly-elected government isn't willing to do anything about climate change, and actually got rid of the (small) changes the previous government had brought in! They do their research about climate change on Wikipedia, no joke!

    One thing I think is important is learning to be more self-sufficient. There is a danger that food production in Australia is going to become unsustainable due to increased temperatures and also increased extreme weather events (floods, droughts, cyclones depending on where you are). So I think people will be producing a lot more of their food on a local scale in the future.

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    1. It's soooo frustrating isn't it? At least the Obama administration is on board with doing something even though congress pretty much has their hands tied. And given the fact that congress is rigged (the house of representatives at least - the districts have all been drawn up in such a way that Republicans will pretty much always have the majority even though they get millions fewer votes) well... let's just say that I'm not holding my breath for a government solution.

      I agree about self sufficiency, though I do think that if widespread societal collapse ensued you'd have to be self-sufficient on a level that most of us simply can't imagine in order to survive. That being said - local is good. Sigh.

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  2. Buy guns?

    I am not a gun person, but in the event of something truly terrible happening, I'd be more worried about people than the actual catastrophe. I probably would hold off on kids, too. Maybe stop funding retirement?

    Kind of a sobering thought of what the world might be coming to. Good on you for doing that composting bit, too.

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    1. Ha! Stop contributing to retirement - that's one I didn't think of. I totally agree though, if the worst happened the real thing to fear would be the people.

      I've heard some people say that much of the unrest going on in Africa, and the Arab spring and all that is really climate related. People are willing to put up with all sorts of regimes as long as they're well fed, but when food supplies go down and people start to really struggle for the basics all hell starts to break loose. I suppose that's one way to deal with global population, but not exactly what one would hope for!

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  3. This morning on my walk to work I watched four, count 'em, four gigantic (albeit biodiesel-powered) electric trucks all running their engines while fixing some power lines. all I coudl think of was, "why do I even bother to do climate-helpful things when other people come along and ruin all the progress?"

    I tried then to turn it around and ask how much worse off we'd be if none of the little people did anything at all, and lived just as obscenely as the the carbon Bigfoot of the world.

    It's worth it. We'll be better prepared if something bad does happen, right?

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    1. Oh, I know that feeling quite well! I saw something on TV about pollution in China with scenes of incredible traffic jams (like people stuck for DAYS on the highway) and air that literally looked like pea soup. I think the story was about some young child who had developed lung cancer from all the pollution.

      Anyhow, it made me feel pretty darned small. One would hope that at some point the whole self-preservation thing would kick in and people worldwide would wake up to the problem, but I dunno.

      CatMan says it will happen, but that people are gonna have to do a lot more suffering before they really wake up to the problem on a large scale. I just hope it isn't too late by then.

      Maybe the point isn't to try to change the world single-handedly, but to try to blaze a trail so that as people do wake up to the problem they've got some groundwork laid for them.

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  4. I'd love to think that if I knew the end of the world was nigh I would do something productive...but I know that in reality I would just bury my head in the sand and not believe that it was happening..

    It can be really frustrating to see how many opportunities are missed to look after the planet...but I like your idea that the eco-conscious are trail blazers! Perhaps if people see that having less impact on the planet does not necessarily mean a life of depravation, they'll be more tempted to follow suit...

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    1. I hear you about the productive thing... but if it really was "the end" then one has to ask if the most "productive" thing wouldn't be to make peace with it.

      But I am liking the trailblazer idea more and more... perhaps I should try to keep that in the forefront of my thinking.

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  5. As an individual all I can change is me. I do all the the 3 R's and then some but that is just a drop in the ocean. Our governments are sitting on their hands and without a push from the population nothing will change. However if my lifestyle can inspire just one person to change, then all us low impact folk may possibly inspire enough people to give the government to kick in the butt it needs. Which is basically what you said :)
    I think there's a whole world of hurt coming, not just from climate change. The financial situation in most countries in in a mess, the US is operating on borrowed money as is European Union and my country, Canada is tied very closely to the US.
    And much as I hate to say it(or even think it) this might be a good thing for our planet...sort of Mother Nature giving all our heads a good shake.

    I don't believe there is any place in the world to run.I believe the prudent plan is the get you house in order, eliminate your debt, pay off the mortgage, learn some skills that will be helpful in a disordered world eg gardening, brewing, sewing etc. And continue to live with less because it's the right thing to do....not because the Cat-Aclysm is coming.
    Marie



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    1. Yup... Gaia is rearing her head and doing her best to rid herself of her human infestation! I'm picturing those old margarine commercials "Its not nice to fool Mother Nature!"

      Anyhow, I totally agree - the only people we can change are ourselves. In that spirit, I'm gonna turn off the computer and go for a bike ride!

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  6. My solution it to not allow any further reproduction and have all of the current humans cared for. Then teach everyone how to live with less, reuse more, compost, and recycle. And since I'm being more than idealistic, everyone will have gardens.

    Really, I have no clue. I just try to do my part. I speak my values. I share them when I do my organization/decluttering work. I started that new blog (which I need to get back to...). My boys are probably going to despise my small/eco-friendly living, but I try. I guess that's all we can do :/

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    1. Megyn, I don't think your boys have to despise small/eco-friendly living. (At least not until they're teenagers and despise everything you do just because.)

      Have you read _No Impact Man_? It's about a guy who tries to reduce the impact he and the rest of his family is making on the earth to NOTHING. In NEW YORK CITY. He gets much closer than I ever thought was possible. And their lives actually got better (except on laundry day). Including his little girl (age 2?) who loved it. The book is a fun read, too, such as the first day when he decides not to make trash but the first thing he does is blow his nose into a tissue and the second thing he does is change his little girl's disposable diaper. He has a lot of re-learning to do and he brings us along for the ride. (There's also a movie, but I haven't seen it.)

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    2. Ha! So I wanna know how you achieve this "no more reproduction" thing! I actually think that the best way to get humans to reproduce less is to improve their standard of living. I just read an article about how Japan's population is plummeting because basically women are having too much fun to be bothered with having kids. Even here, our population is only growing from immigration, otherwise it would be dwindling. Of course, that doesn't help in the nightmare scenario of "we've only got 36 years left."

      Anyhow, I agree with Debbie that your boys aren't necessarily gonna hate you for it and might really enjoy it. I LOVED No Impact Man, it's actually the reason I got Netflix was because I wanted to see the movie so badly!

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    3. I don't agree with NO reproduction at all but educating women and providing access to birth control greatly reduces family sizes. In urban Brazil it only took one generation of women for the birth rate to go from something like 6 kids per woman to less than 2. The documentary was done by National Geographic so I trust their research, I just can't remember the exact numbers off the top of my head.

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    4. I totally agree Amanda. Of course, in the "goose is cooked" scenario of assured total destruction, one does have to ask if there's any point in continuing to reproduce.

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    5. Of course! I agree there'd be no sensible reason to reproduce if the world was unlivable - but I don't think it would be possible to ensure 100% no one would/could leading up to that moment. ;)

      And I think I'm just too much of an optimist (or have my head in the sand) to truly wrap my head around no hope for survival. I prefer to think pockets of humans would live on and the Earth would swing back to better conditions eventually. Obviously I've been reading too many books with happy endings. :)

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    6. Nope... I don't think you're overly optimistic, and I too would hope that even if the worst happened a few people might survive.

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    7. My no reproduction comes from my frustration on the time/resources/money people spend on reproduction when there are literally millions of already born children needing a home + good parents. Ugh people and their genetic preferences lol! I wish there was some sort of blocker that could be put in place (sort of like an IUD) for both sexes. I mean, we thwart the reproduction of so many animal species, why not manage our own for once?! UGH this topic gets me riled up!

      As for my boys, at 3 + 5 they already get grumpy about things...not having more toys or eating crap foods or buying single serving everything, etc. Hopefully, they'll see the benefit when they get older, but for now, I totally understand there will be continual whining from them lol!

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    8. "I wish there was some sort of blocker that could be put in place..." You remind me of a co-worker I once had who was going through a nasty divorce and custody battle. She and her soon to be ex-husband were required to attend a series of child care classes before they could legally get divorced (she lived in the people's republic of Boulder.) Ahyhow, here comment was "wait... where was this stuff before we got married?" I guess my point is that people seem to have a pretty unrealistic and romanticized notion about what being a parent is all about.

      While I don't believe that the government should decide who can and can't reproduce, I do long for a day when every child is wanted, and cared for by people with both the financial and emotional resources to do so.

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  7. If that really happened, well, I've been in other situations where I've watched people clawing their way to limited resources (such as too many gals and not enough guys for ballroom dance competitions) and I'm just not up to it. So I'd consider suicide.

    Meanwhile, I cause obscene amounts of pollution because it's fun. I travel on planes, in trains, in cars, on buses. I stay friends with (and keep visiting) people who move out into the suburbs and even to other states and countries. I stay up as late as I want at night with lights on. I use computers, a refrigerator, and a million other things. And I own lots of stuff.

    Oh, I pollute less than the average American. How noble is that? I really don't inconvenience myself. I turn lights off that I'm not using. I don't drive when I could walk. I use a laptop instead of a desktop and have a low-mileage car. I air-condition a smaller house. I often buy things used.

    And I don't even try to influence anyone else. I'm not heroic and I'm not a trialblazer.

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    1. Holy Moly! I've gotta admit that suicide never even crossed my mind - wonder what that says about both of us!

      Anyhow, I admire your matter of fact approach to this stuff. I am often motivated by guilt - it's a family tradition and somehow I took the brunt of it. But I have to agree that trying to be heroic is of limited usefulness!

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    2. Well, I've read a few post-apocalyptic books. I'm not violent, I don't have many rural skills, and I'm a picky eater. It's hard to imagine things going well for me in that sort of environment.

      My boyfriend's parents were always afraid of some kind of armageddon like nuclear war, so they spent their lives in small towns, most of which were kind of horrible. They are dead now and spent their whole lives in fear (not too much, but still), for nothing (except they did escape the 9/11 tragedy).

      I'd much rather err in the other direction--head in the sand, hoping nothing bad happens in my lifetime--to me. Like the stereotypical American. Because it's more fun!

      But I also know about science, so I know I could be horribly, horribly wrong.

      I greatly admire heroic people. And brave people. I am not them. At least I can follow in some of their footsteps. I sign petitions. I make the easy sacrifices. I help educate people who want to be educated. But also a part of me wants to appreciate things like world travel while it's still possible--because it's not fair that only clueless people should get to. Or something.

      I have inner conflicts!

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    3. I actually think your approach makes a heckuva lot of sense. I mean, the real shame would be if humans destroyed the planet and made themselves miserable at the same time! I tend to believe that "heroic" behavior is generally much more self-serving than it's made out to be.

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  8. Loot the chemist for Valium, bottle shop for champagne, and the supermarket to possibly take up smoking again!

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    1. Ha! I can see that you're in the "enjoy life while you've got it" camp! :-)

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  9. I am just over a month away from turning 64, so my perspective & situation is a bit different. I have no faith in the human race and am, therefore, a fatalist. We, as a species, have already doomed the planet. I mourn for the coming loss of all the other species on the planet, but humans made their bed and they will have to die in it. When I saw Soylent Green in the early 70s I knew I'd seen the future. I wept when Edward G Robinson's character chose death and lay watching a film of what the Earth was when he was younger - green things, wildlife, etc. I knew I was seeing the future for our planet. Corporations and greed have brought us to where we are, yet most people - especially in developed countries - do little or nothing. I applaud warriors, like Bill McKibben who founded 350.org, but I'm firmly convinced it's too late. I'm glad I won't be around, hoarding guns & ammunition to protect me and my critters from the out of control masses who have resorted to pillaging and plundering to survive. Then you have the radical evangelicals who stand now on the sidelines cheering that The End Times are near & they will be transported straight to their heaven. Boy are they going to be surprised. IMHO, it couldn't happen to a better group of people.

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    1. Ha! It's the Mother Earth Smack Down! I tend to agree that it's too late on this one, and am thankful that at 46 I won't be around to experience the worst of it - though part of me would enjoy getting to see all of the greedy bastards get their comeuppance even if it meant I had to suffer right alongside them.

      And now you've totally ruined me for the day, because my inner movie quoter is gonna be screaming "Soylent Green is people... it's PEEEEEEEEEOPLE!!!!" all day long!

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  10. Ooh, this is a tough one. I try to think about it in terms of what I can do to lessen my impact, but it's scary and depressing too. I talk about it with people I'm close to - like when my parents come over for dinner and they ask why I bought organic milk. And sometimes I'm able to influence them :) I also write letters to my Congress people, although securing more jobs and money for our state seem to be their priorities. Maybe if they keep hearing about climate change, they'll come around? I really think people have to want to change for it to be successful though (unless it's something super easy).

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    1. I tend to think that we aren't going to see real change unless and until the environmental cost of things is built into the actual cost that people pay. I just think that human beings aren't built to "sacrifice for the greater good" and voluntary changes are not gonna make much impact other than laying the groundwork for how things could be different on a wide scale.

      But as we saw in 2008 when gas prices skyrocketed, people change their ways pretty darned quickly when their pocketbooks are at stake!

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  11. Interesting question. If I were younger and heard these predictions I wouldn't have children, but since that's a moot point all I can do is continue to teach them and the grandchildren how to make do, grow their own etc.

    Your question is even more relevant to me today because I am currently reading The End of Growth by Richard Heinberg at the the moment. While he talks about climate change in this one, I get the impression that before we run out of resources or make the planet unlivable he is predicting the fall of the banking system and as a result trade. What's really scary is much of what he talks about we are already seeing happen.

    Either way, economically or environmentally, I believe we are cooked but good.

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    1. I'm a big fan of Richard Heinberg - I've read a few of his books, but not sure if that one was among them or not. Any way you slice it, I think it's pretty clear that the next 100 years aren't gonna look anything like the last 100.

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